26 Nov,2020

Indian Economy Gaining Momentum

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After a slump in our Economy's GDP, the data releases indicate that the economic momentum is improving on the back of the lifting of the lockdown, RBI's Liquidity infusion, fiscal stimulus and recovery in global trade. Although the third quarter has been witnessing a spike in cases in some areas, but its effect is not being felt in the Economic Data Releases for the same. 

There has been a robust recover in GST collection at Rs 954.9bn, the Gross GST collection for Sep’20 was 4% higher than Sep’19 and 10.4% above the Aug’20 level. This compared to the shortfall of 72%/38% in Apr/May’20, respectively, reflecting the impact of the Covid-19-induced lockdown. India’s Manufacturing PMI jumped sharply to 56.8 in Sep’20 from 52.0 in Aug’20. The sustenance of the above 50-level for the second straight month indicates that the manufacturing sector has attained expansion now. The rate of expansion of new orders was the fastest since 2012. Overseas sales returned to growth, supported by the expansion in new export orders. Consumer sentiment reached its highest level in more than four years, backed by the expectation of fewer Covid-19 cases, new enquiries and projects in the pipeline. Unemployment rate declined sharply to 6.7% in Sep’20 from a peak of 23.6% in Apr’20 (CMIE). The core infrastructure sector for Aug’20 contracted by 8.5% YoY (-8% in Jul’20), largely led by refinery products and cement. Banking sector data shows continued expansion in deposit growth (12% YoY) and currency holding with the public (24% YoY) even as credit growth remains subdued (5.3% YoY) for the same.

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